- Great propane and early oil prebuy prices in 2009. Rack Plus just OK so far.
A mixed year so far. Our propane prices have been fantastic this year, as much as $1.00 per gallon less than market price. We carried out early pre-buys with all our dealers except Irving who declined to participate in February. Those prices were excellent. When prices increased, we instituted Rack Plus pricing for new members and those who joined too late for the early pre-buys. Rack Plus pricing was predicated on an El Nino year (warmer than average temps), highest supply of oil on hand in 26 years and low worldwide demand. The speculators have managed to keep the price up nevertheless. However, prices have dropped in the last few weeks
- Rack Plus price dropping-oversupply of oil and low demand
A sign of Happier Holidays is the recent price drop on oil; our rack plus price today is between $2.30 and $2.39 a gallon depending on your geographical location and dealer. Current market prices are between $2.49 and $2.59 a gallon. Still not as good as the early pre-buys of $1.98/$1.99 and $2.11 but heading in the right direction.The oil glut is still with us and demand is weak. Oil prices, though fluctuating, have been more stable than last year but are not yet dropping to where we would like to see them
- El Nino effects minimal in New England
The predicted El Nino is in full swing for the next three months but the current warming forecast now currently excludes New England except for the warm November we've recently experienced. See: NOAA Forecast
- We expect substantial Fuel Price increases in 2010-2011 - Higher demand worldwide
China, India and Brazil on on their way to full recovery. The US and Europe will swing to positive GDP growth in 2010. Oil demand will increase and we expect higher prices.
- We plan on early fuel programs in February. You MUST be renewed to participate. Join EARLY for the best rates
Irving has agreed to an early pre-buy with our other dealers if conditions warrant, meaning all dealers will do a pre-buy. We think this will be the best pricing of the year. All dealers will have budget and regular pre-buy (cash up front) programs; some will have tight contracts and Net 10 or Net 30 payment terms. All dealers except Irving will probably do a second and possibly third bid up to late Spring. I expect each successive bid to be more expensive. Irving may or may not do a second bid.
- Speculators - I don't expect much relief from speculators soon.
Regulations to minimize speculation in oil are buried in the climate control and financial regulation bills. It appears that the Commodities Board itself is waiting to see what Congress does before they impose their own rules such as requiring more money down to control future contracts.
- The 2 Gig Wind Turbine. We are stalled on this project.
There appears to be no legal and inexpensive way to do what the Dutch do; allow a couple of thousand small investors to put up a wind turbine. To open the project to more than 35 investors, one would have to file with the SEC, an expensive proposition. We intend to pursue it, however but probably with fewer investors. We have talked to several members with very promising sites.
- Wood Pellets - We did offer wood pellets for sale this year in response to member demand at $249/ton.
Food for thought. At the following prices, the following fuels provide equal amounts of heat in BTUs; oil @$2.38/gallon = Pellets @$279/ton and = propane @$1.58/gallon AND; when oil @$2.13/gallon =Pellets @$249/ton and = propane @$1.42/gallon
